Five Years at The Kenyan Pump: Pain, Relief & Shock

This report is a five-year anatomy of how that happened. Drawing on every EPRA monthly pricing review from June 2021 to May 2026, Nissi Insights maps the forces behind Kenya's pump prices: international crude markets, exchange rate movement, government-to-government supply deals and a stabilization fund that has deployed billions, part of which remains unaccounted for. The central finding is structural. Nearly half of every shilling paid at the pump today is not the cost of fuel or freight. It is the accumulated weight of fiscal policy, regulated margins, and political decisions. The report also looks forward, setting out a scenario range for pump prices through December 2026 and drawing out the implications for transport operators, manufacturers, investors, and policymakers navigating what remains one of Kenya's most consequential and least understood pricing mechanisms