Report

Ethiopian Power for Kenya: Price, Dependence and the 2027 Reset

Ethiopia now supplies a tenth of Kenya’s electricity, and in December 2026 the import allowance doubles to 400 MW. We examine what that dependence really costs Kenya, and who holds the cards when the price comes up for review in 2027. The report begins in Ethiopia. It maps a fuel mix that is almost entirely hydro, with the GERD alone producing about half the country’s power. It follows where that power goes: most stays at home, and a third goes to data miners. It tracks how Ethiopia’s export revenue grew from US$118m to US$140m in a year, with Kenya paying three of every four dollars. And it explains why crypto now earns Ethiopia more than its exports do.

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10/30/2026
Report
Ethiopian Power for Kenya: Price, Dependence and the 2027 Reset
The report also traces how the deal came about, from the 2012 agreement to first flows in 2022, and the players and controversies along the way. It sets Kenya’s fuel mix and demand against Ethiopia’s. It prices every source of Kenya’s power using Kenya Power’s own accounts. And it shows how the PPA moratorium left Ethiopia as Kenya’s safety margin. Finally, the report reads the new open access rules for what they mean for imports and cross-border trade. It then models the 2027 review, where every cent on the tariff costs Kenya about US$24.7m a year.

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