Carbon Markets: Voluntary vs Compliance Convergence

The long-anticipated convergence between voluntary and compliance carbon markets is beginning to materialise. Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, combined with proposals for mandatory climate disclosure, is creating a new market architecture that blurs the traditional boundaries.

For corporates, this convergence has significant strategic implications. Credit quality and provenance are becoming paramount, prices are likely to increase, and the distinction between offsetting and insetting is becoming more nuanced. Our analysis examines the key market dynamics, pricing trajectories, and risk factors that should inform corporate carbon strategy in 2026 and beyond.